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| Census says New Orleans is still a 'chocolate' metropolis |
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Posted: Friday, August 29, 2008 10:44 am
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New census data shows New Orleans remains a predominantly Black city but has an older overall population than before it was ravaged by Hurricane Katrina.
U.S. Census Bureau figures released last week show New Orleans had the nation's greatest increase in its Black population, gaining about 20,800 residents from 2006 to 2007, an increase that was part of an overall population jump as residents returned after Katrina.
The Census Bureau estimated the city's population at 239,124 as of July 2007. a 14 percent hike from its count of 210,198 in July 2006, but still well below the 453,726 people who lived in the city in July 2005, a month before Hurricane Katrina hit.
Not everyone believes those new numbers are an accurate reflection's of the city's population.
The city has challenged the Census Bureau's estimate, saying it is at least 40,000 people too low. Officials fear undercounting could hurt public perception of the city's recovery and cost it federal grant dollars that are allocated based on population.
Kelly Schulz, a spokeswoman for the convention and visitors bureau, said she is regularly asked about the population by convention planners unsure if the city has the restaurants, taxi drivers and other amenities to allow it to successfully host large events.
Estimates by local analysts were higher than the Census Bureau's, with one based on utility activity putting the city's population at 281,000 and another based on postal service data putting it at 302,000. The Census Bureau released its overall population estimates earlier this year.
Some of the city's elected officials have suggested over the past two years that it's been difficult to get an accurate count of the city's residents because oftentimes New Orleans families have been sharing households, addresses and utility bills, with multiple families under one roof.
Census figures are based on data including births, deaths and tax records.
The new census report, which provides demographic detail, said Cook County, which includes Chicago, had the country's largest Black population, 1.4 million.
An estimated 62 percent of New Orleans residents were Black or Black and another race in July 2007; that compared with 68 percent in July 2005. An estimated 36 percent were white or white and another race, compared with 30 percent two years earlier.
Tulane University professor Lance Hill said last week that he doesn't think the census bureau provided an accurate depiction of New Orleans' population with its latest numbers.
"That percentage sounded extremely high to me - as if someone had simply extrapolated from pre-Katrina data when the city was 68 percent Black: that is exactly what they did," Hill said.
"Rather than rely on the normal method of using IRS returns and matching them with Social Security data, which will provide exact racial and age composition, for this special post-Katrina population estimate the bureau also used "special address change" information from the postal service. In other words, they assumed, as local demographer Greg Rigamer and others did, that anyone listing a change of address to New Orleans is actually now living in New Orleans. Then, since the postal service has no data on race, the bureau simply took the pre-Katrina racial composition of the city (68 percent Black) and presumed that 68 percent of these new addresses were Black. That inflated the percentage of Black residents and that's how they concluded that the city was now 62 percent Black."
That shift could have political implications in what has been a heavily Democratic area, as could the overall drop in population, which could cost the area legislative seats, said Rigamer, who has closely monitored trends since the storm.
Hill says he spoke with Census Bureau researcher Larry Sink, who directed the bureau's latest population study, last week and offered some reasons for the disparities between the reported population and the city's actual head count.
"I told him that this racial breakout does not conform with other obvious measures; the miniscule Black voter turnout; 50 percent of the registered Black voters are being purged for not voting in two consecutive federal elections; public school attendance is 50 percent - 90 percent of the students are Black - while private school attendance is near 90 percent - and 90 percent of whites attend private schools in New Orleans.
"I can walk in my neighborhood in Broadmoor and see that the majority of empty houses are receiving mail and have utility hookups," Hill added. "So while people have their reasons for maintaining legal residency in the city -college tuition, school attendance zones - this is a poor method of measuring actual human habitation."
The 2010 Census, which is expected to provide a much clearer picture of the post-Katrina landscape and set the tone for redistricting, should be especially telling.
Greg Harper, a Census Bureau demographer, told The Associated Press that Hurricane Katrina created a "really exceptional," and challenging, situation for those who track population.
Following a very dynamic situation the first two-plus years after Katrina displaced thousands of people, the city has started to see a slowing in the rate of return, local analysts say.
In spite of ongoing efforts to rebuild housing and public infrastructure, the city has yet to attract major new high-wage employers as it seeks to diversify its tourist-dependent economy.
The Census figures also suggest an older overall population. The median age in July 2005 was 35; two years later, it was 39.6.
Quality of life remains an issue for many families concerned about crime and the availability of health care. The city's long-troubled public education system is in the midst of extensive reforms that could prompt more young families with children to return.
This article ran in the August 11, 2008 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.
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