Could Graves challenge Letlow?

By Christopher Tidmore
Contributing Writer

The whole point of the La. Legislature’s drawing of a second African-American majority district which stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport (closely resembling one ruled an unconstitutional “gerrymander” almost three decades ago) was to protect Rep. Julia Letlow. Now, it might put her political future in danger. Rep. Garrett Graves could easily run against her – and would have a good chance of winning.

Forty-three percent of Graves’ current 6th District was drawn two weeks ago into Letlow’s U.S. House seat. It created for her the curious situation of representing an L-shaped district stretching from Morehouse Parish (bordering Arkansas) to Washington Parish (bordering Mississippi’s gulf-facing Hancock County). Of course, the Florida Parishes and the Monroe-metro at least slightly-border the Mississippi River, which stands as far more geographically cohesive than the Special Session’s desired replacement for Graves’ seat. The new 6th District stretches from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, looking like a salamander. The seat’s only geographic cohesion is uncrossable swampland – and a 54-percent African-American majority.

The new Black majority seat mirrors Cleo Fields’ old congressional district, which he represented from 1992-1997. (Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in the Hays v. Louisiana case that his then-4th District constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, as it lacked appreciable geographic cohesion.) Not accidentally, 52 percent of residents of the new 6th District live within the boundaries of Fields’ long-ago 4th, making Fields the leading candidate for this new majority-minority seat, as he essentially drew its lines as the recently-appointed chairman of the state Senate and Governmental Affairs committee. In fact, Fields announced his bid for Congress on January 23, shortly after the recent Special Session concluded.

Nevertheless, whilst fashioning the contours of the new district, Fields and his colleagues professed that their stated objective sought simply “to protect Julia Letlow,” as the more logical new African-American dominant seat would have been a re-fashioning of hers, running up the Mississippi River from Baton Rouge to Monroe. It would have been geographically cohesive as well as majority Black. Graves, though, previously opposed the gubernatorial candidacy of Fields’ cross-party ally Jeff Landry, making him a far more attractive target; whereas Letlow is a beloved figure in GOP circles, the widow of equally revered activist Luke Letlow – who died of COVID right after winning 5th Congressional District in 2020. Julia ran successfully to succeed her late husband in 2021.

Dubbed affectionately by party leaders as “the Steel Magnolia,” she has been floated as a future GOP gubernatorial candidate. However, in a head-to-head contest in the newly redrawn 5th against Graves, Letlow still would be endangered. Not only was 43 percent of his former district placed in hers, but according to DailyKos, 111,000 Trump voters live in Graves’ portion of the new 5th, while 117,000 live in Letlow’s. Moreover, another 111,000 Biden voters also live in the redrawn 5th District, and since the open primary would remain in force in the 2024 elections, they could prove his greatest asset.

No Democrat can win the refashioned 5th District, yet Graves has always been known for his cross-party appeal. As the architect of Louisiana’s strategy to fight coastal erosion, he has proven himself the rare Republican congressman who has acknowledged the reality and dangers of global warming. Democrats, therefore, could provide the margin to unseat Letlow in a jungle primary, along with GOP voters who have backed Graves in the past. After all, Conservatives have no real reason to dislike him. He might have supported Kevin McCarthy over Steve Scalise in the U.S. House Speaker’s battle, and Steve Waguespack over Jeff Landry in the La. governor’s race, yet Graves still enjoys a much higher profile than Letlow with the general La. Republican electorate. So many of the hierarchy’s complaints against him could come off as “insider GOP baseball.”

He would certainly have a better chance against Letlow than running against Cleo Fields in the reformed 6th District, 59 percent of whose voters supported Joe Biden in 2020. More importantly, Graves does plan to stand for another term in Congress somewhere, no matter what, as he explained to The Times-Picayune’s Tyler Bridges, “I expect to run, and I expect to be re-elected.”

As to which seat, he refused to rule any options out. Congressmen need not be resident in their district. That he might “carpetbag” to another seat just a couple of miles away from his house reportedly caught the attention of LAGOP big-wigs terrified that he will take on Letlow. Nevertheless, Graves has held on to his hope that he will not have to; that the federal judiciary “will reject the new map.”

Unlikely, as the attorney for the previous plaintiffs Jared Evans indicated that his NAACP clients “will most likely accept the new map,” while attorney Marc Elias, whose firm represents a second set of those who previously filed suit, called the map a “big victory.” If Graves does not file a legal challenge, which so far he has indicated personally he will not, just exactly which “injured party” shall petition the U.S. Supreme Court on his behalf?

The La. Legislature enacted the new African-American majority 6th District with overwhelming bipartisan support, making such a case rather problematic, in any case, and leaving Julia Letlow’s seat as Graves’ only practical option in the autumn elections.

In an interview with Politico.com, however, Graves continued to insist that the redistricting map will be struck down in court, so a race against Letlow remains unlikely. “That certainly would be a bit awkward scenario, but I don’t envision it ever coming to that,” he said, noting he’d endorsed Letlow early and maxed out donations to her first campaign in 2021.

This article originally published in the January 29, 2024 print edition of The Louisiana Weekly newspaper.